First off, I just want to say Thank You to everyone who reads the Breakdowns.  We have gone through some good and bad times, good name calling, bad name calling, some of you want me gone, some of you want me to stay, but even through all of that, the season has been one hell of a ride.  Ive gotten to meet a lot of you over the years, and over the season, its cool to finally put faces with screennames and I appreciate all the criticism over my work, good or the bad.  There are still two more games left, and they look to be classics.  I look forward to meeting some more of you guys Friday and Saturday night, as I stated, the HS tailgating party will be in full effect Saturday starting well before kickoff time.  I will try to find a way to advertise where we are all parked, so anyone wishing to stop by for a drink or two are welcome, fan of my work or not.  Good luck to all four teams this weekend, and I thank you guys for a spectacular season.  Come back next week, as I will post the 2012 Final Breakdown.

HS CHAMPIONSHIP BREAKDOWNS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
HS PLAYOFF PREDICTION TOTAL: 7/10 = 70%
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
HS 2012 SEASON PREDICTION w/ Playoffs TOTAL: 200/245 = 82%
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
HS 2011 SEASON PREDICTION TOTAL: 217/251 = 86%
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

DIVISION 1 2012 STATE PLAYOFFS

#1 Middletown (11-0) ((Rd.1 - OFF; Semis ? Defeated #4 Caesar Rodney; FINALS ? vs. ))
#2 Salesianum (10-1) ((Rd.1 - OFF; Semis - vs. #3 St. Marks))
#3 St. Marks (9-3) ((Rd.1 - Defeated #6 Cape Henlopen; Semis - vs. #2 Salesianum))
#4 Caesar Rodney (8-4) ((Rd.1 - Defeated #5 Sussex Central; Semis ? Eliminated by #1 Middletown))
#5 Sussex Central (8-3) ((Rd.1 - Eliminated by #4 Caesar Rodney))
#6 Cape Henlopen (8-3) ((Rd.1 - Eliminated by #3 St. Marks))

HOW THEY MADE IT HERE:

MIDDLETOWN
Smyrna ? (47-19) W
Glasgow ? (49-0) W
Concord ? (55-6) W
A.I. Dupont ? (51-26) W
Charter ? (49-8) W
Delcastle ? (72-18) W
Appoquinimink ? (57-21) W
Salesianum ? (35-0) W
William Penn ? (48-7) W
Newark ? (41-6) W
Caesar Rodney ? (35-28) W

SALESIANUM
Brandywine ? (42-0) W
Dover ? (22-21) W
Caesar Rodney ? (35-20) W
William Penn ? (42-6) W
Haverford PA ? (48-22) W
East Orange NJ ? (42-14) W
Avon Grove PA ? (42-0) W
Middletown ? (0-35) L
Concord ? (21-13) W
St. Marks ? (7-2) W
St. Marks ? (20-14) W

#1 Middletown vs. #2 Salesianum ((Saturday, December 1^st @ 7:30))
It was nearly four weeks ago when we witnessed one of the biggest games of the season, but what was supposed to be ended in a rout over Salesianum when Middletown put the running clock up on a team that is usually on the winning side of those, 35-0.  Of course, those two teams are destined to meet again in what could be one of the biggest Championship games in Division 1 history.  The Cavaliers and Sals know just about everything about each other and the history between the two go back long before my time.  In their last meeting, Middletowns Jamar Baynard rushed for 129 yards and a touchdown while Quarterback Darius Wade threw for 267 yards and three touchdowns on 17-24 attempts.  Receivers Chris Godwin caught two touchdown passes as well as a punt return for a touchdown and Tommy Davis caught 6 passes for 150 yards.  The defense was even stingier as they held the Sals to only one first down in the first half, due to a defensive penalty on the Cavs.  After all of that, Salesianum was without their start player in Troy Reeder due to an injury caused the week prior against Avon Grove.  It was almost a month later, Reeder returned for the Sals in a game where they needed him the most.  Last weekend, Sallies beat longtime rival St. Marks where Reeder looked healthier than ever before, but unfortunately, Troy still is not 100% healthy according to some scouts, another reason why he had to where an Air cast that covered his leg from his ankle to his knee.  Cast or not, Reeder made a huge contribution last Saturday night rushing for 123 yards for one touchdown.  Middletown has been pointing up points on just about every team this season, never shying 35 points a game so the availability of Reeder on the defensive side of the ball will have to be key for the Sals if they wish to slow down the Cavs offense.  A shutout is far from the prediction of this game, but the big question is not if Sallies can stop Middletown, but rather if they can keep up.  Players such as Brian O'Neil, Jesse June, and Andrew McClelland will have to rise up and play a lot better than they did in the first meeting.  If they let their mistakes from 4 weeks ago get to them, it could be another long night for the players in Navy and Gold.  There has been talk throughout the forums that the play calling is what cost them the game and if that were true, coach Bill DiNardo will have to take some risks and let quarterback Matt Sgro air it down the field because taking your time running down the clock doesn't mean anything if your opponent can drive down the field within seconds and post another 7 points before your offense can catch a breather.  As stated earlier, another shutout is highly unlikely, but there will be two key factors that will play into this game…..one….Matt Sgro, Reeder will be back and should help create the play action for Sgro and two…the Cavs defense.  We Know Middletown will score points, but its how their defense can control the line of scrimmage and limit Sallies big plays if they want to help get a comfortable lead, or a lead at all.  We are in for a barn burner Ladies and Gents, I suggest you keep the little ones at home, bring your ear plugs if you don't like cowbells and fasten your seat belts because we are all in for a treat Saturday night at 7:30
PREDICTION: Middletown 30  Salesianum 23


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

#1 St. Georges (10-1) ((Rd.1 ? Eliminated by #8 Archmere))
#2 Hodgson (11-1) ((Rd. 1 ? Beat #7 DMA; Semis ? vs. #8 Archmere))
#3 Caravel (12-0) ((Rd.1 ? Beat #6 St. Elizabeths; Semis - Defeated #4 Indian River))
#4 Indian River (9-3) ((Rd.1 ? Beat #5 Howard; Semis ? Eliminated by #4 Caravel))
#5 Howard (8-3) (Rd.1 ? Eliminated by #4 Indian River))
#6 St. Elizabeths (6-5) ((Rd.1 ? Eliminated by #3 Caravel))
#7 DMA (7-4) ((Rd.1 ? Eliminated by #2 Hodgson))
#8 Archmere (8-5) ((Rd.1 ? Defeated #1 St. Georges; Semis ? vs. #2 Hodgson))

HOW THEY GOT HERE:

HODGSON
Appoquinimink ? (35-7) W
Mt. Pleasant ? (42-8) W
Dikcinson ? (41-0) W
DMA ? (28-14) W
Mckean ? (54-7) W
Howard ? (35-6) W
St. Georges ? (19-28) L
Brandywine ? (40-6) W
Christiana ? (42-6) W
Pencader ? (56-14) W
DMA ? (47-6) W
Archmere ? (28-7) W

CARAVEL
Pennington NJ ? (41-6) W
Woodbridge ? (47-7) W
Pencader ? (57-0) W
St. Elizabeths ? (41-21) W
Archmere ? (26-7) W
St. Vincent Pallotti MD ? (47-0) W
Polytech ? (43-0) W
Christiana ? (48-0) W
Lake Forest ? (42-12) W
Chester PA ? (Forfeit) W
St. Elizabeths ? (53-21) W
Indian River ? (43-42) W

#2 Hodgson vs. #3 Caravel ((Friday, November 30^th @ 7:30))
PRESEASON #1 AND #2.  This offseason, these two were predicted to meet in the State Championship and it looks like that prediction will come this Friday night.  Both teams have had to fight for their right to be where they are now, with Hodgson having to overcome a lone loss to St. Georges and then having to meet DMA and Archmere in the playoffs, and then with Caravel, having to keep its players on the right track as an undefeated season is never an easy thing to do, no matter how talented your team is.  Hodgson is led by Raymond Jones who carried his team last year as a Running back, but has led his team this year as a Quarterback with an estimated 1000 yards rushing and 1,200 yards passing with 23 touchdowns on the season.  His running back, Jeff May has 1619 total yards and 29 touchdowns on the season making these two a serious threat to Caravels title aspirations.  The Eagles defense has been one of the better ones seen this season only allowing an average of 9.08 points a game, facing 4 playoff caliber opponents throughout the season as opposed to Caravels defense who has allowed an average of 10.54 points a game with 3 playoff caliber opponents on its schedule.  With those statistics, you could easily say that the defenses are pretty evenly matched but when evaluating their offenses there has been numerous of difference among the two.  If Hodgson can play to its ability and not let turnovers haunt them like they have all season, the Eagles could be one of the better teams in the state, even better than Caravel and an Indian River, but it's the lack of consistency that threatens their hopes of a championship.  Caravel has proven that they can play at a high level week in and week out, no matter who they are going up against, something that was drawn into question a few times because of their schedule, but when you shutout half the teams in your schedule as well as averaging 44.3 points a game, it really silences the doubters.  Last year, these two met in the Semi-finals and it took one more point for Caravel to edge Hodgson on their turf to advance to the Championship but before that, it was back in 2007 when these two met in the Division 2 Championship when Hodgson sparked an unbelievable comeback to earn their own undefeated (13-0) season with a 24-16 bout.  That same year, the talk was all about these two powerful offenses and they both were held under 30 points.  Back to the current era…..If there had to be a playoff MVP, that accomplishment would go to no other than Darnell Savage and his unbelievable play in the Bucs last two wins over St. Elizabeths, and Indian River.  If Hodgson can contain Savage, they then have to worry about George Murray, or Running back Pierce Ripanti who has been getting some serious looks from colleges.  Hodgson will have to limit their turnovers if they wish to keep pace with the Buccaneers, but even then, trying to keep Caravel off the board long enough for you to get ahead in the game is a daunting task.
PREDICTION: Caravel 34  Hodgson 26

HS TOP 5
1. Middletown (11-0)
2. Salesianum (10-1)
3. Caravel (12-0)
4. St. Marks (9-3)
5. Indian River (9-3)

#4-#5 are too close to call. They could be flip flopped if given the argument.

This post was edited on 11/26 11:31 PM by HSftballlaxFan

Always fun to read your thoughts, HS.

As far as your top five goes, I understand getting Caravel and IR in there. I do. We each have our own criteria for doing rankings, and hypothetical situations, the majority would agree at least, would not get high priority. They do with me though, and having seen pretty much all the top D-I and II teams play, I can honestly say I doubt either of those two would beat any of the six D-I playoff teams more than once out of every 10 games played. Caravel and IR both have very good teams, and I don't think anything should be taken away from either, but there's a reason why we have two divisions in football. And I'm sure I will take some flak for saying that, but it's what I believe, and I bet I am not alone.

Nice job HS and Jeff for your contributions all season long....only two games left!!!!

HS, great breakdown as usual.  I hope we can keep some good discussions going over the offseason.  Maybe throw some topics out there every so often  (greatest teams of all time, greatest QB's etc, etc.)  Thanks for your updates all season!!!! 

Jeff.  I'm not going to give you flak, i think you have a very good point.  I think after the game discussions next week...this will be the main topic of discussion.  DIVISION 1 vs Division 2...WHO IS BETTER.  Especially if Caravel and Middletown both win easily.  Or if Caravel dominates and Middletown loses, i think their will be a valid argument that Caravel is tops in the state??? 

oldskool, I would have to say that if Middletown loses and Caravel wins, their HAS to be a valid argument that Caravel is top in the state.  Caravel and Sallies scrimmaged in the pre season, and I believe Caravel's first team scored once and Sals first team didnt score at all.  Caravel deffinitly looked better than the Sals in that scrimmage.. That being said, there would have to be a valid argument.
I doubt Middletown will lose though.  Too much speed.

You can't use scrimmages to base something like that on, sorry but that is a little far fetched. Scrimmages in absolutely no way represent the regular season.

If Sallies beats Middletown they will be the number 1 team, hands down. Just thier body of work over the course of the season is enough...as much as I hate saying it, CA schedule hurts them in that arguement. Time to just sit back and watch the D1 and D2 championship.

You can definitely use scrimmages to base something like that on.  Okay, it is not a regular season game, but both teams had there best 11 out there and they were playing ball.  Just saying, Caravel can hang with Sallies, it was shown.

Okay, you go ahead and believe that....a scrimmage is just that, a scrimmage. It has absolutely no effect on the outcome of the season other than injuries that occur, but if you want to live in a land of make believe....go for it.

I can remember back this past August watching the Cape, Howard, Delcastle scrimmage and seeing Delcastle run the ball pretty good on Cape's first team defense....if I had based Delcastle's outlook based on that scrimmage I'd thought they would win more than 1 game, but it was just that.....



A SCRIMMAGE!!!!!!


Now lets be real.


Sorry HS, wasn't trying to hijack your thread......

This post was edited on 11/27 5:43 PM by greyghost86

Jeff- to be honest, after watching these playoff games, I almost wanted to throw st. Marks completely out of it. Their display Friday night didnt show me anything worthy of a top 5 team. Then again, I left right before they put their first points up. If I went in solely on the display of football that I saw for all teams, it would be MT, SALS, CA, IR, HOD. With caravel giving a solid argument if being 2, and closer to MT than the sals. But my criteria involved schedule, wins and losses, talent, depth and coaching. The outcomes of both games this weekend will solidify who is truly #1. Two close games still won't answer that question. A caravel blowout will put them with the likes of MT, then from there it's all speculation as who can beat who.

The breakdown was top notch as always. Well done. I do disagree a bit on the top 5 list. IR ahead of SC, CR and even Cape? I can't buy that. I watched SC dismantle IR. Really wasn't even close. I believe Cape and CR would do the same to IR. That's my opinion.

You may be right. I won't argue that. All season I have been the main one saying that D2 can't compete with the best of D1. I somewhat still beliee that. I'm just using the teams that were still left round by round. For instance, I next week wasn't the last breakdown I'd do a top 3. But I'll do my top 10 for each division and final top 20. Thanks for the compliment

I think the scores of this weekend could have something to say about rankings.  If Mtown destroys Sals and Caravel destroy Hvt then it would be hard to say Sals are #2 in state. (not because of scrimmages because sorry scrimmages DONT count)  I would have to give it to Caravel.  Now if Mtown wins but in a very tight good game with Sals and Caravel also wins a lose game, i would be inclined to say Sals is #2 by the slightest of margins over Caravel because its D1, and Sals with a much tougher schedule... 

After that the rankings really get dicey when you combine D1 & D2.  But lets just enjoy this weekends games and then let the debates begin.

HS I alway enjoy your through breakdowns.  I may not always agree but that is what the board is all about.  You do a nice job, thanks for the insight.

Now regarding determining a team overall abilities based on a "Scrimmage" is huge REACH. 

A scrimmage is not an offical game, actually the scrimmage you are referring too is done as 10 plays for each team, no officals, no special teams,the coaches are on the field with the players, etc...   The coaches are evaluating talent. 

The best example I can give you is that Reeder was still Salesianum's QB, I would have to say thing have changed a great bit, since August. 

Caravel is a good, talented team, no one is saying they are not.  

Brain storm....;
 Caravel should prove us all wrong and schedule Salesianum, Middletown, St. Marks, etc... to their regular season schedule.  Then there would be no debating "the what could happen", make it happen!

Great season to each of the remaining 4 teams.  Best of luck to all!  We should see some exciting games this weekend!  Enjoy the games!

CFF, being a guy of your caliber, do you think the refs should of gave Caravel a free pass to the next round?
Thanks, I know your answer will be truthful.

HS,

Always an entertaining read and while you contradict yourself a lil' bit in your D-1 breakdown, you mentioned some good stuff. I did find your predictions for both games interesting, especially the 7 pt win for the Cavaliers.Are you just trying to keep some Clones happy? Trying hard to be humble? Or is that really how you see this game?

Anyhow-I hope it is that close, blowouts suck unless your part of the team winning.

On paper this game should not be close but thats why only a small part of the game is actually played out in prep work etc.

Here is my take,
MT has played only 2 quality opponents while Salesianum has played at least 5.Since the 35-0 train wreck MT has played only their 2nd quality team and got a scare while Salesianum has looked both good and lucky in that same time period.
No matter-both squads are here now.I think the best point that you made was the TOP issue.Salesianum prob will win that battle and def will need to if they are going to have a good chance.We agree that even if the Sals win the TOP battle easily, it will not mean anything if the Cavs continue this score at will pace.

In no certain order I think this game will come down to 5 basic elements:
Turnovers
Special Teams
Coaching-love this matchups!!!!
Experience-this is 3 appearances in a row for MT with alot more players who have been here before.
Attitude-Salesianum is in a win-win here, they are expected to lose but the key is- do the MT boys stay grounded?

Although I made my pick on Jeffs thread, NOBODY should be shocked if Salesianum wins.
And this may be a real early preview of the 2013 playoff/title game.

D-2
Caravel going away.
  

---

Originally posted by CountianJeff:
Always fun to read your thoughts, HS.

As far as your top five goes, I understand getting Caravel and IR in there. I do. We each have our own criteria for doing rankings, and hypothetical situations, the majority would agree at least, would not get high priority. They do with me though, and having seen pretty much all the top D-I and II teams play, I can honestly say I doubt either of those two would beat any of the six D-I playoff teams more than once out of every 10 games played. Caravel and IR both have very good teams, and I don't think anything should be taken away from either, but there's a reason why we have two divisions in football. And I'm sure I will take some flak for saying that, but it's what I believe, and I bet I am not alone.

---

Jeff,
You are by far-Not Alone.And I sure I will take some flak over that as well but while every few years there are some D-2 teams that could compete with the best of D-1, it is the exception, not the rule. 

As of today I would think most would agree the top 2  are MT and Salesianum.
IMO-that does not change, regardless of the final score Saturday.

Now that #3 spot is where the debate really picks up steam.The politically correct will automatically have the D-2 winner. Anyone who watched certain KEY games this year could make a solid argument for another strong D-1 team though, and if Salesianum wins the title, it is overwhelmingly strong.

Any Clone knows Salesianum deserves to be here but that they are also very opportunistic/fortunate as well.

If MT keeps this up we may have to rename the D-1 champ. game-The Canal Classic! 

Jawnsky - I was pleasantly surprised by your pick. Throughout the week, you have led many in the direction of you favoring the Sals in this matchup.

My Pick is somewhat  what you say...50/50. It was to help the clones feel better, but it also is how i feel this game will turn out.  After looking over the predictions for this game from all the sports writers, minus the News Journal as they dont release their picks until the day of the games, it occured to me that the majority of them have middletown in yet another particular easy win.  I feel different.  Salesianum gets their playmaker back in Reeder, although it is still uncertain how healthy he is.  His game against St. Marks would say 100% but even then it was said he was not at his full health.

The Cavs defense is i feel the most underrated in the state because they have let up points against some quality teams, although their schedule was stacked, the WillIam Penns, Glasgow, Newarks, Concord, and Appos of the state is a pretty tough schedule, no matter the state of the conference, but what people dont see is the box scores of those games, times when the back ups were in, who let up the majority of those points scored.  Not sure how many points the first team defense has let up but i know its Top 3 in the state, if not first.  Their run defense, as someone said is their strong point, and i do feel that Sallies knows this as well and will use a completely different gameplan this time rather than the one used 4 weeks ago.
,
Reeder will make a HUGE impact in this game, offensively and defensively but its going to take a lot more than just him to put the Sals on top.  Yes, they have quite a bit of talented players, but no where near the amount of talent and EXPERIENCE than Middletown and i think that will play a HUGE factor.  Sallies will score, and i can see a tie game at halftime, but the Cavs will start to pull away late in the 3rd with their powerful running game and wear down the sallies defense, giving them their 7 point win.  To be Honest, the 7 point spread, like i said is primarly to help the clones feel better, and to help convince some doubters that im NOT a homer, if i feel MT will lose, i will pick them to lose, but i cant see them losing this year.  If i really had to go with my GUT, and predict this game, id say 34-24, Middletown.  I wouldnt go no more than 10 points because of the atomsphere, Salesianum will come to play and make it itnteresting, theres no doubt about that.

Gentlemen. You just can't throw that first game out the window. It happened. Even Bummy was shocked at the total ineptitude of the Slowskys. The Sals can play 3 times as good and still be beaten solidly.
Last month the Slowsky's couldn't contain Wad and the Sals DB's could just not keep up with the Cav's receivers. MT's D line just domnated the Sals O-line.
Can Salesianum win? Sure;  but the magic would have to be immnense to pull this one off. MT by 14 plus. If the Slowsky's get off to a rock start we very may well see the running clock. 

This post was edited on 11/29 10:30 AM by Uncle Bumfuzzled

I for one am glad that we have such knowledgeable and neutral party as our "resident expert" on this board.

Nice job HS. But I still have a gut feeling that the Sals will pull an upset. I see Reeder rushing for about 150 yards and 3 TDs.

HS, you did a pretty decent job on the score for the D2 game....nice job!!!!

I just don' see the rankings crossing over between D1 and D2. I'll give one example. Indian River who had a fine D2 team and Caravel needed to be given an extra play at the end of the game to defeat them. However they lost to Sussex Central who probably would end up as number 5 or 6 in the D1 rankings beat them handily by 20 points.